Pre-match or live betting?
If there ever was a sport to live bet, it’s basketball. Most notably, the NBA has become a league of constant upheaval and pendulum swings. Gone are the days of 20 point leads being secure. Re-vamped playing styles that favour 3 point shots and free throw attempts have completely revolutionized how teams approach game scenarios, opening up the field for competition.
Nevertheless, the NBA is still a star-driven league, and it’s always wise to consider the personnel of both teams before making a wager.
Shopping for the best line pre-match is crucial to being a successful bettor. Line movement is the norm for the NBA, especially with sharks dictating betting markets, so it’s always a good rule of thumb to track a line within a 24 hour period. If you’re ever uncertain, skip the pre-match line and wait for more favourable odds during a live game. You might get lucky and catch the Houston Rockets at +10 going into half-time against the lowly Atlanta Hawks. Patience always wins!
Stats to watch
Basketball is slowly becoming a game of analytics and probability with numerous data points battling for credibility. Here’s a list of a few key performance indicators:
- Turnover rate (the lower, the better)
- Rebound rate
- Expected field goal percentage (eFG%)
- Free throw rate (attempts)
- 3pt shooting percentage
It’s true that possessions are a great indicator of a teams success. Simply, the more chances you have to score, the more likely you are to win. However, a teams efficiency while in possession coupled with their distributed shot attempts paints a more comprehensive picture of a team’s true potential.
In the end, a successful basketball bettor uses stats to validate opinions and assumptions that arise while watching a game. Combine the two and hopefully, you’ll find some success!
